Roderick Graham Duncan
Lecturer
School of Marketing and Management
Charles Sturt University
Bathurst, NSW 2795
Australia
Phone: (02) 6338-4982
Fax: (02) 6338-4769
Email: rduncan@csu.edu.au
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Roderick Graham Duncan
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Research Fields
Publications
Abstract: The resources super-profits tax (RSPT) proposed to retroactively change the tax structure on existing minerals projects in Australia. Do expropriations such as the RSPT permanently damage the reputation of countries and reduce future minerals investment and growth in minerals output? No unambiguous reputational effects from either seizure of capital or changes in tax rates are found from analysis of a dataset of minerals expropriations from 1960 to 2008. Instances of governments undoing past expropriations with cuts in taxes on mining investments are at least as common as instances of expropriation, although far less frequently reported.
Abstract: Networks are a common structural form through which institutions, including universities, compete. However, institutional theories such as the Resource Advantage Theory of Competition (RATC) which offers explanations of how institutions continually refresh resources to offset the changing competitive resource configurations, fail to consider this context. Our research objectives are to extend understandings of the RATC in a network context, and to contribute to the emerging body of work on network structure and evolution. This research employs agent-based simulations to model the dynamics of the RATC in the complex evolving world of university science departments as they link with others in competing for national competitive grants. We use university department RAE and research network data to interpret the structural forms observed in the simulations. Our findings indicate how network structures form and change as a consequence of the increasing complexity of multi-disciplinary resource grant requirements and imperatives to improve RAE rankings.
Roderick Duncan (forthcoming) “Governance reform in the public sector in Pacific island countries: Understanding how culture matters”, chapter in forthcoming Asian Development Bank book on governance reform in the Pacific. .doc
Abstract: Governance reform in Pacific island countries has been a point of emphasis for international aid agencies for over a decade. Despite this emphasis, there is no evidence that governance reform programs have improved the operations of the public sectors in any of these countries. Past reviews of governance reform programs by international aid agencies have stressed the importance of understanding local culture but failed to follow up these statements with research into Pacific culture- especially Pacific political culture. Current Pacific political culture shares much of the same values that operated in Pacific culture pre-contact with European societies. Three Pacific political values are identified: distribution, transparency and competition. Working with these Pacific values, rather than against them, could lead to better designs for international aid efforts in the Pacific.
Abstract: This paper reports on a pilot project (still in progress at the time of ANZAM submission) to map the aged care industry in the Bathurst regional area of Central West New South Wales. The purpose of the project is to inform the future efforts of government, community based providers (CBPs) and private agencies in the sustainable development of the aged care industry. Early data suggest that the fragmented industry structure of CBPs, funded through asynchronous, disjointed state and federal funding programs, will be unable to respond to the increased demand for aged care services over the next decade. Initial findings also suggest that market tensions between CBPs and commercial providers will increase as they engage in competitive tendering for state and federal funding, and directly compete for scarce labour in a very tight regional labour market. This paper explores these issues through a case study of a regional city (Bathurst), a nearby regional town (Blayney) and a rural village (Wattle Flat). The study draws on: interviews with community based service providers, commercial providers, seniors’ organisations, and local, state and federal government agencies; and, focus groups with seniors (aged 60+ years) in each of the localities.
Satish Chand and Roderick Duncan (2010) “Strengthening political parties in the Pacific”, Pacific Economic Bulletin, 25(1), pp. 74-84. .pdf
Abstract: The instability of Pacific politics is often traced to the weakness of its political organisations. In Papua New Guinea the OLIPPAC legislation was put into place to stabilise PNG politics by enhancing the role of parties in parliament but the impact of OLIPPAC has been debatable. We look at the causes of weak parties in PNG and compare the political system in PNG to that of developed democracies where political parties are stronger. This comparison suggests ways we might strengthen PNG parties- in particular through a reformed “slush fund” for parties.
Abstract: Governance strengthening programs such as the RAMSI in Solomon Islands and CRP in Vanuatu have achieved major overhauls of public service institutions, but the responses in terms of economic growth and human welfare indicators have been poor. Growth prospects post-RAMSI in Solomon Islands and post-CRP in Vanuatu are hindered because they are still high-cost economic environments for foreign investors.
Abstract: This paper provides useful insights in the debate regarding the relationship between stronger patent rights, host country policies and multinational enterprise (MNE) activity using panel data from US MNEs. It analyzes the impact of stronger patent protection on the exports, local affiliate sales and licensing activities by explicitly modeling the joint nature of the MNE’s decision making process in servicing a foreign market. The key findings support the idea that the policy environment in the host country influences the impact of stronger IPRs on US MNE activities during the period 1992 to 2000. A risky environment in the host country appears on average to have a negative and significant impact on unaffiliated exports and affiliate sales. Increased patent protection in high-risk countries on average appears to reduce licensing, and increase unaffiliated exports, suggesting a dominant monopoly effect of stronger IPRs in the former case and a dominant market expansion effect in the latter case.
(2008) ``Agricultural productivity, the electoral cycle and ENSO effects in Papua New Guinea ”, Pacific Economic Bulletin, 23(1), pp. 74-84. .pdf version
Abstract: Commentators have suggested that there is a link between agricultural productivity and elections in Papua New Guinea . On its face this seems a plausible hypothesis, however I find little supporting evidence for a link between agricultural output in export cash crops and PNG elections. What does appear true is that recent El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in PNG have occurred around election years. It is these ENSO events and the droughts and floods that follow that have impacted PNG agricultural productivity. The unfortunate coincidence of elections and agricultural stress may explain some of the civil unrest in PNG elections.
Abstract: Improved macroeconomic management has been a significant achievement of the Somare Government and the Bank of Papua New Guinea. But, despite the high level of minerals revenue, in recent years the public debt has not been reduced significantly, recurrent spending has increased rapidly, and the 2007 Budget is very vulnerable to downturns in minerals prices. Further, the lack of progress in overcoming the institutional problems facing investors means that it is likely the economy will not achieve the 4 per cent GDP growth forecasts for future years. Of particular concern is the likelihood of a “perfect storm” of election-year misappropriation, given the combination of huge windfall gains from the high mineral prices committed to vaguely defined investment programs and politicians having in mind the nearly 80 per cent turnover at the 2002 election.
Abstract: Modern democracies use regulatory structures to control many types of behaviour. In the theoretical literature these regulatory structures, which could be income tax codes, sets of tariffs or traffic laws, are presented as systems of rules that are constant over time. However in practice regulatory structures are often observed to change over time. A model is developed to explain why we might observe regulatory structures cycling between periods of increasing complexity and episodes of reform. The model is used to identify the features of stable versus cyclical regulatory structures.
Abstract: Expropriations of foreign direct investment in developing countries are typically blamed on political and economic crises in those countries. Developing a new database of expropriations in the minerals sectors of developing country exporters, I show that expropriations were correlated with minerals price booms and that democratic governments were more likely to expropriate. No link is found between expropriations and political or economic crises, except at independence. A better explanation of expropriation would be opportunistic behaviour by host governments when profits of investments are high. In two developed countries, Australia and Canada, expropriations are also found to occur during price booms.
Data: Dataset used in regressions in paper plus some old extra tables showing the link between resource prices and expropriations.
Book Reviews
Roderick Duncan (2009) ``The Evolution of Resource Property Rights by Anthony Scott'', Economic Record, 85(269), June, pp. 226-228.
Review of Toon van Meijl and Franz von Benda-Beckmann (2002) Property rights and economic development: Land and natural resources in Southeast Asia in Pacific Economic Bulletin 17(1), May 2002, pp. 167-9.
Some papers that are still works in progress:
Abstract: Environmental offsets have been proposed as a technique for managing the environmental impacts of new developments in regions that are not in compliance with environmental standards. By requiring developers to “offset” any impacts by purchasing “environmental credits”, environmental quality can be maintained or even improved. The use of environmental offsets has a lot of intuitive appeal, and offsets are being used widely in the USA and several pilot projects are either in operation or being developed in Australia. However there is at present no theoretical framework for analyzing the use of offsets, which has led to some confusions in the literature. We provide a model for analyzing the design of offsets policy and clear up some of the existing difficulties, as well as proposing some improvements in policy.
Abstract: Modelling global climate changes without taking account of the changes in resource markets can produce climate policy with perverse consequences. In even the simplest economic model of emissions of greenhouse gases, naïve policies that ignore markets can lead to perverse outcomes- the opposite of that intended by the policy-makers- such as accelerating global warming. Yet the global climate models that are commonly used to develop climate policy do not adequately model resource markets. As a consequence, we need to develop better models of resource markets within our global climate models.
These .pdf files can be read using the Adobe Acrobat Reader, which a free piece of software available from here.
Teaching
My Teaching Portfolio is here.
Recent presentations