THE PAST– IMMEDIATE (ROUNDS 6-10)

THE SCOREBOARD

Wins and Losses
The last 5 rounds saw Richmond record 3 wins and 2 losses. It has them in 11th spot on the ladder with a 4-6 record – effectively a position to challenge for a top 8 position through the next few rounds.

The two losses were heavy ones, continuing a disturbing trend in 2004, which is an ongoing trend from seasons 2002-3. When the Tigers lose, they tend to lose badly. The 6 losses this season have had an average losing margin of 57 points. Interestingly this 57 point losing average is consistent through both rounds 1-5 as well as rounds 6-10.

Percentage
Competitiveness is usually best measured in terms of For/Against Percentage. Richmond’s percentage across these 5 matches was 83%, an improvement on the 67% return from rounds 1-5, and overall gives the team a competition worst percentage of 74% on the season. Considering that the team actually won more games than they lost from rounds 6-10, a return of 83% is disappointing.

Offensively, the Tigers have scored over 100 points on just one occasion (r8 v Western Bulldogs) and have averaged just 75 points per game. This has been fairly constant through the first 10 rounds.

Defensively, Richmond has improved by about 4 goals the past 5 rounds. From rounds 1-5, Richmond opponents averaged 113ppg. This was reduced to 89ppg from rounds 6-10.

During the first 5 rounds, Richmond played all matches in Melbourne. From rounds 6-10, Richmond faced the toughest part of their draw including 3 interstate games, coming away with a reasonable 1-2 split.

Through rounds 1-5 just 3 Richmond players averaged more than 20 possessions per game (Kane Johnson 25; Nathan Brown 23.6 and Wayne Campbell 20.2). From rounds 6-10, these three retained their consistency however, were joined by Bowden (27), Tivendale (21.2) and Fleming (20). Another to show considerable improvement was Chris Hyde (7.2 to 15).

Krakouer averaged 17.2 possessions per outing through rounds 1-5, however, this dropped dramatically to 9.2 from rounds 6-10. Krakouer is one of 7 young players whose contribution dived the past 5 rounds. Three didn’t play senior footy –Morrison, Zantuck and Coughlan. Three others were well down in Hartigan (12 to 7), Roach (13 to 7) and Rodan (9 to 6).

STATS IN DETAIL

Possessions
Through rounds 6-10 Richmond were actually less competitive possessions wise than they were in the first 5 rounds. Opponents averaged 21 possessions more per game, whilst Richmond averaged 3-4 possessions less per game. That’s a 25-possession swing to the opposition, part of which could be explained by the straightening up game plan resulting from Matthew Richardson’s return to the team.

A worrying stat to emerge in the past fortnight is the high possession stats of opponents – an average of 358 possessions. The previous highest recorded against the Tigers in 2004 was Melbourne’s 317 in Round 2.

A comparison of first half to second half possessions at first showed little, however, after eliminating one exceptional statistic (the freakish Sydney round 7 weather conditions) Richmond were considerably less able to win possession after half time. During rounds 6-10, to half time, opposition teams had around 8 possessions more, however, in the second half they averaged around 17 possessions more, giving opposition teams around 25 possessions more per game.

Marks
Richmond was also less competitive in Marking across rounds 6-10. The number of marks per match declined from 92 to 80, whilst opponents marking rose slightly from 89 to 91.

Tackles
Richmond matched opposition teams in this category across rounds 1-5 (43 each), however, in rounds 6-10, opponents held a 9% edge (49 v 45).

THE FUTURE – IMMEDIATE (ROUNDS 11-16)

Richmond play 5 of their next 6 in Melbourne, their only interstate encounter being a trip to the Gabba to tackle Brisbane in Round 14, following the bye weekend. Prior to the bye weekend are a group of 3 very winnable matches – Kangaroos at Docklands, Fremantle at MCG and Carlton at Docklands. Any hopes Richmond have on making Finals in 2004 will rest on winning these 3 matches. Following this group of matches the Tigers take on 3 of the very best in Brisbane (away), Essendon (MCG) and St Kilda (Docklands). They will be hoping to snare one of this trio to give them a solid 4-2 return, 8-8 overall and entering a final stretch that sees them scheduled to play 5 of their last 6 matches at the MCG against fairly average opposition.

THE SCOREBOARD

To become genuinely competitive, Richmond has to start consistently kicking 12-13 goals minimum, even in their defeats. This will give them a chance of winning all matches from hereon in plus avoid embarrassing blow-outs.

Richo’s return has highlighted the problem of goal-scoring power at Tigerland. In the past 4 weeks just 12 players have kicked a combined total of 41 goals. Richo has 20 of those 41 goals. Brown has 5 and Stafford 4. Clearly kicking more goals as well as getting a greater spread of goal scorers must become a major focus from hereon in.

PLAYERS

Any 2004 Finals campaign will rest on the talented shoulders of 5 young players who for various reasons have given little to the cause thus far in 2004. They are:

• Mark Coughlan;
• Andy Krakouer;
• David Rodan;
• Ty Zantuck; and
• Kayne Pettifer

On their 2003 form, Zantuck and Coughlan have been sorely missed. Zantuck, Krakouer, Rodan and Pettifer are all goal savvy and all can make a valuable contribution to the Offensive end of the team. The Richmond Coaching Panel will be hoping that Fleming, Bowden, Tivendale and Hyde can continue their improved efforts around the midfield.

Out
On the injury front, the Tigers will have to find a replacement for Andy Kellaway who will miss around 6 weeks with an injury to his AC joint.

In
Luke Weller (hamstring) returns shortly whilst seasoned vets Justin Blumfield, Matty Rogers and Duncan Kellaway have a few games with Coburg under their belts as they press for Senior Selection in the coming weeks. Aaron Fiora, a late withdrawal (hamstring) from the Eagles match, may miss another week.

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